For what I do, InnoSetup works for me. We use InstallShield at work, and I don't enjoy working in it.
InnoSetup can be used without spending too much time. There are several pre-written scripts available including one at
http://www.experts-exchange.com/Programming/Installation/Q_22404298.html that can be used to install / download the framework. There is a "Quick Start Pack" for InnoSetup that includes an addon IDE that simplifies script generation.
As for your other options, I've not used any of them. I did use Visual Studio Installer a long time ago with VS 6 so I'm not sure if it's the same or not. I think the difference between Setup Factory and MSI Factory is that Setup Factory does not create Windows Installer (MSI) based installs.